Market Action For Last Week
SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
- Last Friday (09/06/24) Closing Price: $540.36
- This Friday (09/13/24) Closing Price: $562.01
- Point Gain/Loss: +$21.65
- Percent Gain/Loss: +4.01%
QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)
- Last Friday (09/06/24) Closing Price: $448.69
- This Friday (09/13/24) Closing Price: $475.34
- Point Gain/Loss: +$26.65
- Percent Gain/Loss: +5.94%
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)
- Last Friday (09/06/24) Closing Price: $207.90
- This Friday (09/13/24) Closing Price: $216.83
- Point Gain/Loss: +$8.93
- Percent Gain/Loss: +4.30%
Economic Reports
Monday, September 16, 2024:
- No major economic reports scheduled.
Tuesday, September 17, 2024:
- Retail Sales MoM - 08:30 AM ET (High Impact)
- Business Inventories - 10:00 AM ET (Medium Impact)
- Interest Rate - 10:00 AM ET (Medium Impact)
- Nahb Housing Market Index - 10:00 AM ET (Medium Impact)
Wednesday, September 18, 2024:
- Building Permits - 08:30 AM ET (High Impact)
- Interest Rate - 02:00 PM ET (High Impact)
- Interest Rate - 02:00 PM ET (High Impact)
- Interest Rate - 02:30 PM ET (High Impact)
Thursday, September 19, 2024:
- Existing Home Sales - 10:00 AM ET (Medium Impact)
- Existing Home Sales MoM - 10:00 AM ET (Medium Impact)
Friday, September 20, 2024:
- No major economic reports scheduled.
Earnings Reports
Monday, September 16, 2024:
- PKG (Packaging Corporation of America) - Market Cap: $18.72 Billion - Post Market - Q3 2024 - EPS Estimate: $2.50
Tuesday, September 17, 2024:
- No major earnings reports scheduled.
Wednesday, September 18, 2024:
- GIS (General Mills) - Market Cap: $41.14 Billion - Pre Market - Q1 2025 - EPS Estimate: $1.07
- ZGN (Zogenix) - Market Cap: $4.03 Billion - Q2 2024 - EPS Estimate: $0.10
- SCS (Steelcase) - Market Cap: $1.57 Billion - Post Market - Q2 2025 - EPS Estimate: $0.38
Thursday, September 19, 2024:
- FDX (FedEx) - Market Cap: $69.53 Billion - Post Market - Q1 2025 - EPS Estimate: $4.98
- LEN (Lennar) - Market Cap: $50.54 Billion - Post Market - Q3 2024 - EPS Estimate: $3.67
- DRI (Darden Restaurants) - Market Cap: $18.78 Billion - Pre Market - Q1 2025 - EPS Estimate: $1.86
- FDS (FactSet) - Market Cap: $16.77 Billion - Post Market - Q4 2024 - EPS Estimate: $3.66
- MLKN (MillerKnoll) - Market Cap: $1.81 Billion - Post Market - Q1 2025 - EPS Estimate: $0.41
Friday, September 20, 2024:
- DAVA (Endava) - Market Cap: $1.89 Billion - Post Market - Q4 2024 - EPS Estimate: $0.23
Market Outlook for the Next 30 Days
Bearish
The market outlook for the next 30 days remains bearish due to several factors:
- Market Volatility and Bearish Sentiment: The current market sentiment is bearish, driven by concerns over a potential economic slowdown and the impact of upcoming Federal Reserve decisions.
- Economic Data Concerns: Soft labor market data and increased concerns about growth have contributed to the bearish outlook. The focus has shifted from inflation to growth concerns, which is likely to keep the market under pressure.
- Technical Indicators: Technical analysis suggests that the S&P 500 is in a bearish position, with potential support levels at the 100-day Simple Moving Average and previous lows. This indicates that additional downside is possible before any potential bounce.
The bearish outlook for the next 30 days is based on several factors, despite the market pushing all-time highs. Here’s a detailed explanation:
1. Market Volatility and Bearish Sentiment:
- Volatility: The market has been experiencing significant volatility, which often precedes a correction. High volatility can indicate uncertainty and fear among investors.
- Bearish Sentiment: Despite recent gains, the overall sentiment remains cautious due to concerns about economic slowdown and potential negative impacts from upcoming Federal Reserve decisions.
2. Economic Data Concerns:
- Soft Labor Market Data: Recent labor market data has shown signs of weakness, which could indicate a slowing economy. This shift from inflation concerns to growth concerns is worrisome for investors.
- Growth Concerns: There are increasing concerns about the sustainability of economic growth. If growth slows down, it could negatively impact corporate earnings and market performance.
3. Technical Indicators:
- Support Levels: Technical analysis suggests that the S&P 500 is in a precarious position. While it may be pushing all-time highs, it is also close to key support levels like the 100-day Simple Moving Average. A breach of these levels could trigger a significant sell-off.
- Overbought Conditions: The market may be in an overbought condition, which often leads to a pullback. Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) can signal when a market is overbought.
4. Federal Reserve Policy Meeting:
- Interest Rate Decisions: The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting on September 17-18 is crucial. The market is divided on whether there will be a 25 basis point or a 50 basis point rate cut. Any unexpected decision could lead to market turbulence.
- Inflation vs. Growth: The Fed’s focus has shifted from controlling inflation to supporting growth. This shift indicates underlying economic weaknesses that could impact market performance.
5. Upcoming Economic Reports:
- High-Impact Reports: Reports like Retail Sales, Building Permits, and Existing Home Sales can significantly impact market sentiment. Negative data from these reports could reinforce the bearish outlook.
Conclusion:
While the market is currently pushing all-time highs, the underlying factors suggest caution. The combination of market volatility, economic data concerns, technical indicators, and upcoming Federal Reserve decisions supports a bearish outlook for the next 30 days.
Disclaimer: Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s essential to stay updated with the latest information and adjust your strategy accordingly.